Member-only story
In our popular post entitled ‘ The Kolmogorov IPO Score for 1Life Healthcare, Inc (aka One Medical)’, we predicted that One Medical had a 24% probability of a successful IPO! Given that One Medical stock closed ~ 57% up, you may be tempted to conclude that our prediction was wrong. Well, not really, because as stated in our post, we don’t consider the first-day stock surge as ‘success’ — instead, the ability of the company to maintain a strong stock performance until the lockup period expires is what we consider as being a successful IPO from the perspective of existing shareholders like VCs. This is very important as we have seen companies make stellar debuts, with their stocks skyrocketing on the first day of trading, only to see a couple of weeks later the stocks sinking to a record low just before the lockup period expires. Hence, even though One Medical stock closed ~ 57% up after the first trading day, our prediction can still come true when the lockup period expires! Of course, we don’t wish ill or diminish the efforts of the management, employees and investors who worked extremely hard to bring the company to this stage as a public company.
Finally, as mentioned previously, One Medical was actually not part of our pre-selection list of 246 technology-driven unicorns that we’re closely monitoring. However, we decided to take on a challenge of applying the investor sentiment analysis to stress-test our mathematical models against companies where we have limited profiling data such as with One Medical.
